Every retail headline in the first week of December said roughly the same thing: “Black Friday breaks records.”

Online spending surged. Cyber Monday hit new highs. Analysts cheered the resilience of U.S. consumers. The narrative was triumphant and familiar.

But behind the celebratory charts and revenue numbers, something fundamentally different was happening.

According to our U.S. Tariffs Report: Holiday Spending Under Tariff Pressure, conducted December 2–4 with 371 U.S. shoppers evenly split across ages and genders, consumers did not feel like this was a strong year for them. In fact, their emotional reality tells almost the opposite story of the macro headlines.

This BFCM may go down as a record-setter for retailers. But for consumers? It was a season of strain, strategy, and skepticism.

And that tension — between how consumers performed and how they felt — is the single most important signal ecommerce marketers must pay attention to heading into 2026.

Retailers celebrated. Consumers recalibrated.

Holiday shoppers showed up, yes — but not because they felt secure. Not because deals felt irresistible. And certainly not because they felt flush with disposable income.

26% of consumers told us they feel more cautious entering December than they did in January. Another 21% feel less secure, and 12% describe themselves as panicked.

That is nearly 60% of the U.S. population entering the peak holiday moment in some state of financial anxiety.

Contrast that with the headlines. After December 1, multiple outlets reported:

• Record-breaking $11.8B online Black Friday spending
• A historic Cyber Monday, hitting nearly $14B
• Stronger-than-expected Q4 demand

From the outside, it looked like a win. From the inside, consumers were quietly tightening their grip on every dollar. The holiday shopper of 2025 wasn’t exuberant, they were exhausted.

The BFCM participation rate is the real story

Despite record revenue, 33% of consumers skipped BFCM entirely — a shockingly high number for what is supposed to be retail’s most universal shopping moment.

Not browsed lightly.
Not bought less.
Skipped.

And age played a defining role:

• 55% of Boomers opted out, far above any other group.
• Millennials and Gen Z participated at higher rates, but their spending was measured, intentional, and frequently delayed.

Rather than signaling a lack of interest in holiday spending, this opt-out pattern reflects a broader shift in how consumers evaluate deals. Shoppers who skipped BFCM appear unconvinced that the event delivers meaningful savings, particularly in a year marked by tariff-driven price increases and ongoing inflation. For them, the traditional ritual of BFCM no longer guarantees value.

Among those who did participate, spending was conservative. 47% spent about the same as last year, 38% spent less, and only 15% spent more.

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Taken together, these findings suggest that record-breaking revenue was fueled not by broad participation or increased confidence, but by more selective, concentrated, and carefully controlled purchasing.

What does that tell us?

The “big weekend” no longer belongs to everyone. BFCM has become a selective sport — dominated by shoppers who feel digitally agile enough to chase value, while older and more financially conservative consumers sit it out entirely.

This is not a sign of disinterest. It’s a sign of disillusionment.

Shoppers didn’t believe the hype. Or the discounts. Or the promise that BFCM was the “best time to buy.”

And the data backs that up.

“Record spending” happened because consumers worked harder — not because they felt better

Marketers need to recognize a fundamental truth about Holiday 2025: Consumers didn’t spend freely. They spent strategically.

Across our survey:

• 49% said they are seeking deals more often
• 38% are spending less overall or reallocating budgets
• 29% are prioritizing essentials over gifts
• 21% are waiting specifically for major promotions

This strategic posture shapes not only what consumers bought, but how they navigated BFCM. Price sensitivity is especially pronounced in areas where final costs diverge from advertised prices.

A particularly significant insight:

50% of consumers abandoned BFCM carts because taxes, fees, or shipping charges made the total feel too high.

This behavior reflects a deeper mistrust of promotional pricing. While retailers often lean on steep markdowns to convey urgency, the consumer’s final decision hinges on the total cost, an area where many shoppers experienced unwelcome surprises. This sensitivity was especially acute among younger consumers, with up to 42% of Gen Z citing tariff-related price increases as a reason for abandonment.

The implication for marketers is clear: perceived value is now as important as actual value. When total costs feel inflated or unclear, even high-intent shoppers hesitate.

The year trust became the real discount

As consumers grew more sensitive to pricing dynamics, transparency emerged as one of the strongest predictors of brand loyalty. According to the survey, 56% of consumers say they are more likely to remain loyal to brands that clearly communicate pricing changes, stock levels, and promotional rules, and the impact is especially pronounced among younger shoppers. 78% of Gen Z say transparency increases their loyalty.

56% of consumers say they are more likely to stay loyal to brands that clearly communicate pricing, stock levels, and exclusive offers — and for Gen Z, that number jumps to 78%.

Transparency is no longer a courtesy; it is a competitive advantage. In a season characterized by fluctuating prices and complex total costs, consumers reward brands that offer clarity and predictability. This has implications not only for promotional messaging, but for every touchpoint across the customer journey.

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Download the Report: U.S. Tariffs Report: Holiday Spending Under Tariff Pressure
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Industry coverage published after BFCM supports this shift. Reports in The Washington Post and AP News highlight that while shoppers pursued deals energetically, they did so with a heightened awareness of pricing, comparing retailers more aggressively and relying on tools that promised straightforward, verifiable savings. This behavior reinforces the survey’s findings: consumers crave simplicity and honesty during uncertain times.

Consumers didn’t chase deals — they engineered them

For years, retailers assumed cart abandonment was a sign of lost interest. Holiday 2025 proves otherwise.

It is often intentional behavior, especially among younger shoppers.

• 34% of Millennials intentionally abandoned carts to trigger better offers
• Over 30% of Millennials & Gen Z revisited products repeatedly, signaling high intent
• Up to 33% subscribed to email/SMS purely for discounts

What might traditionally be interpreted as “indecision” or “drop-off” is in many cases a purposeful signal. Shoppers are inviting brands to negotiate. They are testing responsiveness. They are using digital body language to communicate intent.

For ecommerce marketers, the challenge is to recognize and respond to these behaviors with precision. Each abandoned cart, each revisited product page, and each new subscription represents a moment where personalization can accelerate conversion. When brands fail to respond, shoppers simply shift to a competitor who does.

This is a seismic shift. For the first time, the consumer journey isn’t passive browsing followed by a decision — it’s a series of deliberate signals designed to force retailers’ hands.

Channel preferences shifted, but the need for relevance stayed constant

Despite an increasingly multi-channel retail ecosystem, consumers still show clear preferences for how they want to receive offers. According to the survey:

• Email remains the top channel, preferred by 50% of consumers
• SMS is favored by 48% of Gen Z and 37% of women, suggesting growing comfort with mobile immediacy
• App push notifications resonate most with Millennials at 39%

These preferences highlight not just where consumers want to receive messages, but the kind of relationship they expect from brands. Shoppers overwhelmingly prefer channels that allow them to maintain control, spaces where they can review offers on their terms without excessive interruption.

Channel fatigue does exist, but it is not driven by volume alone. It is driven by irrelevance. When messaging reflects a clear understanding of consumer intent and context, shoppers report higher satisfaction and are more likely to respond positively.

AI Adoption Shows Promise, But Is Not Yet Universal

While AI-assisted shopping continues to gain traction, its adoption remains inconsistent across demographics. In the survey, 26% of Millennials and 30% of Gen Z reported using AI tools to locate better deals during BFCM, while 87% of Boomers said they did not use AI at all.

Younger consumers are drawn to AI for its promise of efficiency and optimization, especially in a price-sensitive environment. Older consumers express greater skepticism and lower familiarity, making trust and education essential components of future AI-driven experiences.

For marketers, this means AI should be deployed in a segmented, audience-specific way. Automated deal-finding, dynamic pricing insights, and personalized product recommendations may resonate strongly with younger shoppers but require more gradual introduction for older ones.

December matters more than ever — because BFCM wasn’t the release valve people needed

With so many shoppers skipping BFCM or feeling unsure about the value of discounts, December becomes the month where emotions decide revenue.

56% of consumers say they are more likely to stay loyal to brands that clearly communicate pricing, stock levels, and exclusive offers — and for Gen Z, that number jumps to 78%.

Given the level of caution consumers expressed entering December, and the significant number who skipped BFCM, brands should not assume that the holiday season’s momentum was fully realized during the big shopping weekend. On the contrary, December is now a critical period for re-engaging shoppers who hesitated earlier or who delayed their purchasing decisions.

Consumers don’t necessarily have more to spend — they have more to resolve.

They want certainty about:

• Final shipping deadlines
• Total costs (taxes, fees, shipping)
• Stock availability
• Whether prices will drop again
• Whether brands will communicate honestly

Retailers who address these emotional needs directly — through communication that emphasizes clarity, trustworthiness, and simplicity — stand to benefit substantially.

What Holiday 2025 Teaches Us About Marketing in 2026

The combination of strong spending and soft sentiment signals a changing marketplace where consumer psychology matters as much as consumer behavior. Marketers should consider the following principles as they refine their strategies:

1. Treat transparency as a performance lever, not a branding choice.

Shoppers reward brands that communicate honestly about price changes, shipping costs, and stock levels.

2. Reinterpret cart abandonment as intentional behavior.

It is often a cue for better offers, not a sign of lost interest.

3. Personalize value, not just messaging.

Consumers respond to clear, measurable savings, not theatrical markdowns.

4. Recognize the importance of older shoppers.

Boomers opted out of BFCM at the highest rates, representing a major December revenue opportunity.

5. Align strategy with emotional posture, not just demographic data.

Cautious consumers require reassurance; confident consumers respond to urgency.

The real takeaway: your revenue is hiding in plain sight

Holiday 2025 makes one theme unmistakably clear: most shoppers visiting your site are already motivated to buy — if you can identify them, understand their signals, and communicate the right message at the right moment.

But most ecommerce traffic is anonymous.
Anonymous to you, but not to Wunderkind.

Wunderkind’s identity graph — tracking 9B+ devices and 2T+ annual digital events — allows brands to recognize previously anonymous visitors and deliver personalized messages across email, SMS, and ads without third-party cookies.

This means:

• You see the shoppers who abandoned carts intentionally
• You reach the shoppers comparing discounts
• You recognize loyal customers across devices
• You trigger the right message the moment intent appears
• You capture revenue that other brands lose to uncertainty

In a year defined by caution, intentionality, and value-seeking behavior, identity is the difference between capturing demand and losing it. The brands that understand who their shoppers are — and what emotional context they’re operating within — will not only close strong in December but set the pace for 2026.

Because sometimes, the revenue you’re looking for isn’t missing at all.
It’s hidden in plain sight.

Download the U.S. Tariffs: Holiday Survey