Last year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday (BFCM) weekend was the biggest seasonal sales weekend of all time. During the 2024 Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday), US consumers spent $38.1 billion online—a 4.2% year-over-year increase.

Shopify brands helped drive that momentum, generating $9.3 billion in sales and representing more than 12% of total US ecommerce market share, connecting retailers with over 875 million unique online shoppers in 2024.

That success came from planning, not luck. The strongest holiday ecommerce strategies start months before Black Friday with smart holiday planning, detailed inventory forecasting, operational ecommerce readiness, and campaigns that build loyalty beyond Cyber Week. From forecasting inventory to mapping your holiday marketing calendar and driving post-holiday retention, preparation is what powers performance.

This guide breaks down proven strategies you can use to plan, engage, retain, and scale throughout the entire holiday season. 

1. Forecast demand and prepare your inventory

Strong holiday performance starts with planning, because nothing halts momentum faster than running out of stock before campaigns even begin. 

Smart brands use past holiday sales data, current trends, and even waitlist signups to forecast demand ahead of time—a crucial step in seasonal demand planning and overall holiday readiness. That means looking at last year’s Q4 numbers, factoring in any new product launches, and planning for the inevitable spike in returns come January. 

Take Magnolia Bakery as an example. They were juggling local pickups, keeping grocery partners stocked, and shipping treats nationwide. That’s a lot of moving parts, especially during the holidays. With Shopify’s unified tools, they could map out a clear path for each type of customer and make sure inventory flowed smoothly across every channel.

That meant fewer stockouts, less wasted product, and a shopping experience that felt seamless for customers no matter how they placed their order.

Once your operations are ready, it’s time to focus on reaching and converting the right audiences.

2. Advertise to lookalike audiences

Holiday traffic is noisy, and everyone is competing for attention. 

Instead of trying to target broadly, find people who already resemble your best customers. By uploading your customer list to platforms like Meta or by using Shopify Audiences, you can expand your reach without sacrificing relevance. 

Happy Hippo turned to Shopify Audiences, a feature that helps Shopify retailers find more customers and reduce customer acquisition costs by using data from similar brands.

In their first campaign using Shopify Audiences, 23% of Happy Hippo’s total sales came from new-to-brand customers. The campaign also recorded a 140% return on advertising spend (ROAS). The brand’s marketing team took this data to Facebook and created a lookalike audience to reach similar buyers on the social media channel.

“Shopify Audiences is a huge benefit for Plus merchants,” says Adam Biel, Happy Hippo’s CEO and lead product designer. “It has helped lower customer acquisition costs so our investments can stretch much further with Facebook ads.”

As part of your holiday marketing calendar, identify your highest-value customers—those with repeat purchases, high average order value (AOV), or frequent engagement—and use them to seed lookalike campaigns. Then test creative that emphasizes urgency and gifting to tap into seasonal buying behavior.

Once you’ve expanded your reach and built awareness, use limited product drops to turn that attention into action. Product launches with built-in urgency give new audiences a reason to buy now rather than wait.

3. Release time-sensitive product drops

Timed product drops create urgency and exclusivity—two reliable conversion-drivers during peak holiday ecommerce campaigns. They also allow you to control inventory and create natural spikes in sales without deep discounting. Tools like Shopify Launchpad make it easy to schedule drops by updating your storefront, releasing stock, and sending notifications all at once.