How Shopify Payments Uses Machine Learning to Boost Payment Success Rates by 0.26% and Cut Fraud Chargebacks by 20% (2025) – Shopify

In online commerce, small percentage improvements translate to significant financial gains. Shopify Payments’ implementation of the 3D Secure (3DS) protocol—an extra security step to stop fraudsters—has delivered huge benefits for our merchants.

In January 2025, Shopify implemented an experiment, introducing a preauthorization model to intelligently determine when to initiate 3DS on transaction attempts. This model yielded a 26-basis-point increase in payment success rates alongside a 20% reduction (8 bps out of a 41-bps base) in chargebacks categorized as fraudulent by credit card issuers. To put this into perspective if we had this model in place in 2024 these dual improvements would have generated an additional $471 million in annual gross payments volume while saving merchants $62 million in chargeback-related costs. Based on these results we have implemented this for all Shopify Payments merchants. 

This challenges the long-held industry belief that security measures inevitably create friction that harms conversion. Let’s explore how Shopify Payments’ implementation of 3DS achieves this winning combination of better security and higher approval rates—ultimately optimizing merchant revenue through smarter fraud prevention versus using static rules like declining charges that fail verification by an address verification system (AVS).

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Redefining the payment optimization challenge

While the payments industry has traditionally accepted the trade-off between security and conversion as inevitable, Shopify Payments has taken a different approach. Most payment processors force merchants to choose between accepting more transactions and risking fraud, or implementing strict security measures and watching legitimate customers abandon their purchases. This tension creates a direct revenue impact:

• False declines, driven by static rules like declining transactions that fail AVS, cost merchants more than actual fraud, with an estimated $443 billion¹ lost annually to incorrectly rejected legitimate transactions.
• Chargebacks don’t just reverse sales—they multiply your losses. For every $1 lost to fraud, businesses typically spend $4.41 in total costs through fees, operational expenses, and potential penalties. These hidden multipliers silently erode your profit margins. Taking this into consideration, the optimizations from forcing 3DS on high risk transactions saves merchants $273 million in true costs².
• Customer abandonment during overly complex authentication processes represents immediate revenue loss and potential lifetime value reduction. Studies have shown that 18% of cart abandonments are due to a complex checkout experience³.

What makes Shopify Payments’ approach different is that it breaks this trade-off pattern. Through extensive research, testing, and optimization across our vast merchant ecosystem, we’ve developed an ML model that authenticates high-risk transactions with 3DS, which simultaneously improves both metrics that matter most to merchant revenue: payment success and reducing fraud chargebacks categorized as fraudulent by card issuers.

Shopify Payments’ continued innovation in fraud intelligence

While 3D Secure is an industry-standard authentication protocol that’s becoming a requirement in many regions, Shopify Payments has developed an implementation that outperforms typical approaches. 3DS is combined with Shopify’s machine learning models that have been trained across millions of merchants and billions of transactions to look at the entire buying journey, from landing on the site, to browsing, to adding to basket, to checkout. 

When a customer makes an online purchase with Shopify Payments’ 3DS enabled:

1. The customer enters their card details on the merchant’s checkout page.
2. Shopify Payments’ machine learning model assesses the transaction.
3. Our system intelligently routes high-risk transactions through the 3DS.
4. The card issuer assesses the risk level using their algorithms, enhanced by Shopify’s data.
5. Based on this assessment, the issuer either:

• Approves the transaction without additional verification (frictionless flow)
• Requests additional authentication from the cardholder (challenged flow)

This system preserves conversion for low-risk transactions while optimizing the balance between protection and conversion.

Results: 26-bps success rate improvement

We boosted payment success rates by 26 basis points—that’s $471 million in sales merchants would have otherwise lost to declined transactions. How? Our sophisticated combination of machine learning and 3DS sends clear signals to credit card issuers, helping them approve legitimate orders while maintaining strong fraud protection.

We’ve unlocked $471 million in revenue that would have been lost to declined transactions. But that’s just the beginning—this translates to billions in lifetime value for merchants. And they didn’t have to touch a single fraud setting to get it.

Setting new standards: 20% chargeback reduction

Simultaneously, our industry-leading approach confirmed an 8-basis-point reduction in chargeback rates for merchants using Shopify Payments with optimized 3DS. This represents approximately $62 million in annual savings ($273 million in true cost) when factoring in:

• Direct revenue protection: Each prevented chargeback preserves actual sales revenue while eliminating hidden costs. 
• Fee avoidance: Each chargeback typically incurs a $15-$100 fee regardless of transaction size.
• Operational efficiency: Fewer disputes mean less staff time devoted to chargeback management
• Penalty prevention: Maintaining lower chargeback rates helps merchants avoid costly card network monitoring programs and fee increases.

This chargeback reduction directly protects profit margins by eliminating both the revenue reversal and the associated costs of fraud management—a benefit Shopify Payments delivers through years of efforts in optimizing fraud prevention technology.

Shaping the future of payment authentication

The future of payment authentication isn’t about forcing merchants to choose between security and revenue—it’s about intelligent systems that deliver both. Our data shows that Shopify Payments’ approach to fraud optimization through in-checkout machine learning combined with 3DS achieves this balance today, making traditional AVS checks obsolete.

Traditional AVS checks have become a liability in modern commerce. Our analysis reveals:

• AVS alone is a poor fraud predictor, yet merchants routinely decline transactions that fail these checks.
• Card issuers have already approved these transactions before AVS even enters the picture.
• By moving beyond rigid AVS controls, Shopify merchants reduce false declines and process 0.33% more transactions.

We’ve built a better system for handling fraud risk. Our comprehensive fraud analysis already incorporates AVS and card verification value (CVV) data, allowing us to identify and cancel high-risk orders even when AVS checks pass. This intelligence-driven approach safely approves more transactions while maintaining robust protection, especially for international customers and mobile shoppers who frequently trigger false AVS failures.

For merchants worried about fraud, our targeted 3DS approach delivers what matters: higher approval rates and fewer chargebacks—without sacrificing the revenue that blunt AVS rules leave on the table.

Disable AVS settings for your Shopify Payments account

Key takeaways

• Shopify Payments’ 3DS implementation increased payment success rates by 26 basis points, generating $471 million in additional annual payment volume.
• Our industry-leading approach reduced chargeback rates by 20%, saving merchants approximately $62 million annually, and $273 million in full costs.
• Shopify Payments’ payment optimization creates a revenue engine that balances fraud prevention with conversion maximization.
• Our ecosystem-wide intelligence provides benefits that standalone payment processors cannot match.
• Merchants can access these industry-leading benefits simply by using Shopify Payments, without needing to become fraud experts themselves.
• Shopify’s intelligent 3DS approach renders traditional AVS checks obsolete, unlocking false declines while preventing fraud.

In the complex world of online payments, Shopify Payments effectively balances security and conversion. Our 3DS implementation affects both revenue streams: it increases top-line revenue through higher approval rates while protecting margins through fraud reduction. The data shows a 26-bps improvement in payment success and 8-bps reduction in chargebacks, demonstrating the value of using Shopify Payments as an effective payment solution.

Learn more about Shopify Payments

¹https://f.hubspotusercontent10.net/hubfs/2530812/downloads/false-declines-ecommerce-fraud-prevention-report.pdf

²https://microblink.com/resources/blog/the-hidden-costs-of-chargebacks-how-fraud-can-impact-your-bottom-line

³https://baymard.com/lists/cart-abandonment-rate