“In times of economic uncertainty, it’s tempting for brands to decrease marketing budgets. But cutting marketing during a recession is like turning off your car’s engine when driving uphill. You won’t save money on gas—you’ll just roll backward.”
Brands that thrive during recessions don’t view marketing as a cost they need to cut. Instead, they see it as a growth engine. When competitors cut back on marketing, it’s an opportunity for your brand to gain brand visibility and market share.
Strategic marketing can keep customers engaged, build trust, and position your brand for long-term resilience—even in a downturn.
What happens when brands cut marketing budgets in a recession
History shows that brands that maintain or increase marketing spend during downturns recover faster and gain market share.
- 1980s recession – Businesses that continued advertising had 256% higher sales than those that didn’t.
- 1990s recession – McDonald’s slashed its marketing budget, but Taco Bell and Pizza Hut didn’t. As a result, Taco Bell’s sales increased 61% and Pizza Hut’s increased 40%. McDonald’s sales decreased 28%.
- 2008 recession – Hyundai heavily marketed its newly launched assurance program, which allowed buyers to return their cars at no cost if they lost their jobs. While the rest of the auto industry saw a 37% sales decrease, Hyundai sales increased 14% year-over-year.
Marketing during a recession is top of mind again in 2025. According to the latest estimates from Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, there’s a 45% to 60% chance of a recession this year.
Some brands are repeating past mistakes—cutting back on marketing when it matters most.
For example, Temu and Shein recently slashed their U.S. marketing budgets in anticipation of a recession. (Although tariffs also played a role.) Both apps dropped nearly 60 spots in U.S. app rankings, and downloads declined 62%.
Brands that adjust their budgets strategically—rather than making broad cuts—tend to outperform their competitors during and after recessions.
How to market in a downturn: 5 recession marketing strategies
During a recession, people don’t stop spending, but they are pickier about their purchases. They watch their budget and put their money where it has the most value. Before every purchase, consumers ask: “Is this worth it?”
Marketing departments must take a similar approach. Rather than cutting costs completely, spend your marketing dollars more effectively with these five recession marketing tips.
1. Align your messaging with consumer behavior
In economic downturns, marketing messages must adjust to changing consumer behavior.
For example, campaigns that push overconsumption and an unattainable luxury lifestyle will likely fall flat. It makes your brand seem unrelatable and out-of-touch.
Prada has thrived during tough times because it adjusted its messaging to focus on long-term value, quality, and craftsmanship.
While other luxury brands are struggling with the economic slowdown, Prada is seeing record sales. Revenues were up over 12% in the first quarter of 2025.
Despite economic fluctuations, the Prada brand Miu Miu’s popularity has soared with retail sales up 60%. Miu Miu is the top brand in the world right now because it has a clear brand identity and a deep understanding of its audience.
2. Re-evaluate your target audience
Your target audience’s purchasing power and behaviors may change during a recession, so it’s a good chance to re-evaluate them.
According to Harvard, there are four types of consumers in a recession:
- Slam-on-the-brakes – Typically lower-income (under $50K annually) audiences who pause or severely cut back on almost all shopping.
- Pained-but-patient – ($50K to $100K annual income) Consumers who feel the strain, but still spend selectively on essentials and products that show value.
- Comfortably well-off – ($100,000 to $250,000) Consumers who usually stick with brands they trust but may cut back on big purchases.
- Live-for-today – (income varies)Mostly young people who don’t have as many financial responsibilities or wealthy individuals. They spend freely, especially on experiences and brands they value.
Figuring out where your audience fits within these groups helps create more effective marketing.
For example, to reach slam-on-the-brakes consumers, brands must show long-term value or affordability. Consider a discount or promotion.
To attract live-for-today audiences, your brand should offer unique experiences and convenience. They still like a good value for their money, but they’re more likely to spend on fun experiences like travel or events.
3. Audit your marketing mix
Gather data on all the marketing campaigns you’re currently running. Ideally, collect historical data for at least 6-12 months to identify which channels and tactics deliver results.
Then, set benchmarks for performance metrics like:
- Conversion rate (CRO)
- Return-on-investment (ROI)
- Sales and revenue
- Market share
- Customer acquisition cost (CAC)
- Customer lifetime value (CLV)
The metrics you prioritize will vary depending on your goals. However, these tend to be the most important for marketing in a recession. They focus on efficiency, customer retention, and optimizing spend.
Once you have a clear picture of every marketing campaign and its performance, adjust your marketing budget. Cut spending on campaigns that aren’t performing, and reallocate to your biggest revenue drivers. Often, these tactics have low cost, low risk, and high ROI.
4. Track everything and pivot quickly
Reporting and analytics are even more critical when there’s economic uncertainty. A set-it-and-forget-it approach can be fatal.
During a recession, trends, customer behavior, and spending habits change fast.
Staying on top of your data helps you catch drops in ad performance, sales, and other key metrics—and react quickly. When you track everything, you can adjust your marketing budget, pivot strategy, and tweak messaging to improve performance.
Here’s a basic checklist to track your marketing:
- Google Analytics – Monitor website performance and revenue-driving metrics like goal completions, CRO, average order value, and CTV.
- Dashboards like Looker or Tableau – Bring data from various platforms (Google Analytics, ads, etc.) into one dashboard.
- GRUN – Track influencer content performance, engagement, and ROI to identify which partnerships drive the most value.
- Meta, TikTok, and other social ads – Watch for changes—especially a drop—in your ads CTR, CPC, or return-on-ad-spend (ROAS). Generally, it can signal poor performance, so you can quickly pause or reallocate your budget.
5. Invest in influencer marketing
Influencer marketing is a cost-effective, low-risk strategy when done right. Despite recession fears, influencer marketing is one area where most brands aren’t cutting costs.
According to a study by LTK, over 50% of brands plan to increase budget spend on creators in 2025. Overall, US brands will spend over $10 billion on influencer partnerships this year.
If you’re reviewing your marketing budget, here’s why to keep or even up your influencer marketing spend:
- It has high ROI – Brands make an average of $5.20 for every $1 spent on influencer marketing.
- It’s cost-efficient – Influencers offer stronger engagement at a lower cost than traditional advertising. Many brands see 20-30% lower CPA with influencer content.
- It builds trust – Over 63% of consumers trust influencers more than brands.
That said, simply running influencer campaigns doesn’t guarantee success. Like any marketing strategy, it’s all in the details.
Many brands use GRIN to find creators and manage high-performing influencer campaigns. Let’s dive into exactly how to get high returns on influencer marketing even with a tight budget.
How to recession-proof your business with influencer marketing
Many marketers face tighter budgets and growing pressure to do more with less. A possible recession puts more strain on those resources.
However, it can also create opportunities to refine and even innovate your marketing strategy. To create low-risk, high-reward influencer campaigns, keep these expert tips in mind.
1. Find creators that perfectly match your audience
The most effective influencer partnerships are when the creator’s audience matches your ideal customer.
Using GRIN’s Creator Discovery Suite, you can find creators who align with your ideal customer profile (ICP). There are over 190 million Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube influencers to choose from, and you can search by demographics, engagement, and other metrics.
You can also identify creators through:
- Social listening – Monitor brand mentions to find creators who are talking about you.
- Audience lookalike tools – Find creators with audiences similar to creators you’ve already partnered with successfully.
2. Use affiliate marketing
Paying an upfront influencer fee is risky, especially when budgets are tight and you’re working with a new creator.
Affiliate marketing reduces that risk. Instead of a large upfront cost, offer creators commission on sales, so you only pay for actual results. It can also be easier to track. Analyze clicks, conversions, and revenue from affiliate links and measure the partnership’s value.
3. Prioritize gifting and low-risk partnerships
Gifting is another low-risk partnership structure. Instead of spending marketing dollars, you’re only paying for the cost of goods.
Brands use GRIN to manage influencer gifting too. After connecting your store, you can view products and inventory and send gifts without leaving GRIN. You’ll also see data like which products your creators like most.
There’s no guarantee a creator will post when you gift them products. However, they likely will if they’re aligned with your brand and find your product useful.
4. Partner with smaller influencers
Demand for influencer marketing is booming, and creators are more savvy about negotiating their rates. Some creators are also raising prices in anticipation of a recession.
Generally, influencers with larger followings charge more.
- Nano influencers: 1K – 10K followers
- Micro influencers: 10K – 100K followers
- Macro influencers: 100K – 1 million followers
- Mega influencers: Over 1 million followers
However, a large follower count doesn’t always mean you’ll reach a larger, engaged audience.
Partnering with celebrities and mega influencers (1M+ followers) is high-cost and risky. Instead, consider partnering with smaller nano or micro influencers.
Smaller influencers tend to have higher engagement rates than mega influencers. They have tight-knit audiences that view them as authentic and trustworthy.
Nano and micro influencers also have lower rates and are more likely to do lower-cost partnerships like affiliate marketing and gifting.
Influencer marketing in a recession: A low-risk, high-reward strategy
Marketing in a recession is challenging. It’s tempting to stop spending, tighten budgets further, and hope the economy will improve.
However, history shows brands that pull back typically lose in the long run. Cutting marketing during a recession causes you to lose sales, market share, and customers (often to competitors).
To not only survive a recession but come out stronger, double down on what works. When done right, influencer marketing is a cost-effective, scalable strategy that drives revenue without overspending your budget.
