US Holiday Sales To Cross $1 Trillion For First Time

Despite healthy consumer spending overall in 2019, the upcoming holiday season will be affected by economic uncertainty and a shorter timeframe. (This year has six fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than in 2018.)

We forecast that total US holiday retail sales will climb 3.8% to $1.008 trillion this year: the first-ever trillion-dollar holiday season. Last year saw even less growth, at 2.4%.

“Holiday spending growth will be driven by a consumer economy that remains robust, due to low unemployment, rising wages, a strong stock market, and healthy consumer confidence,” eMarketer principal analyst Andrew Lipsman said. “At the same time, rising tariffs, trade war tensions, stock market volatility and dampening consumer sentiment all weigh on the season’s growth potential. A shortened calendar between Thanksgiving and Christmas also presents a challenge.”

Brick-and-mortar remains dominant. In-store sales for the 2019 holiday season will increase by 2.5% to $872.25 billion. Brick-and-mortar still represents the majority (86.6%) of holiday sales, but its share has steadily declined.